January 2015, peak season. you can see the contributions of each of the generation types. brown and black coal to be replaced? not in the near future I dont think.
Victoria alone requires a capacity of over 11,000MW on demand. the record (January 2009-2010 i think) was over 10,500MW. Its been decreasing ever since then.
those are peak figures. peaks have been reducing but average demand has decreased as a whole. due to a number of factors, including:
Appliance efficiency, government efficiency programs, lower growth of wholesale customers, major industrial closures (Alcoa being the most notable), price of electricity, income, household solar.