Currency Rates Effecting Prices

[R377]

mid last year i was looking at importing an Evo VIII for around $30k or a R34 GTR for around $50k.

2008

Average Rates January 95.1924 JPY (23 days average) February 97.7348 JPY (21 days average) March 92.9197 JPY (21 days average) April 95.5892 JPY (22 days average) May 99.0637 JPY (22 days average) June 101.684 JPY (21 days average) July 102.771 JPY (23 days average) August 96.4547 JPY (21 days average) September 87.3348 JPY (22 days average) October 68.7377 JPY (23 days average) November 63.942 JPY (20 days average) December 61.3314 JPY (23 days average)

but it seems since a year ago, these cars are worth about the same on the second hand market. Actually im not sure are they even more expensive to import now ??

2009

Average Rates January 61.0344 JPY (21 days average) February 59.9958 JPY (20 days average) March 65.1678 JPY (22 days average) April 70.5158 JPY (21 days average) May 73.8749 JPY (21 days average) June 77.5364 JPY (22 days average) July 76.0653 JPY (23 days average) August 80.3344 JPY (7 days average)

any economists here ? do you think it might be back up to around 100 by the end of the year ?

Edited August 12, 2009 by R377

[Import Monster]

Long story short mate, no one really knows from one day to the next what the currency is going to do. In the space of a month it went down 40% last year and it has taken since October 08 to get back to around the 80 yen/aud that we see today. If it were to get to 100yen/aud again I believe it will take a combination of a recovering Japanese economy and confidence in the AUD which really means, confidence in resources.

Monday this week we saw 82yen per aud and today it was 78 - this is a 5% variance in a couple of days, influenced by a bit of pessimistic data about the Chinese economy recovering and Japanese economic data showing no signs of a recovery in their economy.

I read everything I can get my hands on to try and get a feel for what might be coming, but truth be told, I didn't expect the aud to recover to 80yen for a while longer. I think that for as long as this GEC is continuing, our currency is going to be volatile. If it holds around the 80 yen mark, I will be happy - when I started importing from Japan around 6-7 year ago we were getting 70yen to the dollar so 80 seems good to me, though I was certainly never complaining when I could buy cars and parts at 110yen to the dollar last year!

Exchange rates aren't the be all and end all of getting good buys. The prices of many used cars and also used car parts in Japan have dropped as demand has dropped domestically and from abroad due to the strengthening yen. At the moment, most cars can be imported for the same sort of dollars as they could be when the aud was 25% stronger against the yen.

I don't expect that will continue though, with Japanese new car sales down by almost half, the flow of used cars onto the market in Japan is slowing markedly, with the amount of available cars at around 60 of the levels we were seeing this time last year. This can only result in prices picking up again, especially as other currencies gain against the yen.

My personal advice?

If you're looking for an import - look locally first. If you don't find what you're looking for, importing is the way to go. You will generally save vs buying locally, particularly on more expensive cars (evo, gt-r and 34 or later skylines) and get a better choice of cars

This probably hasn't shed any light for you on what to expect with exchange rates - I don't think anyone can predict what will happen day to day - the so called experts have 20/20 hindsight vision but they all have different opinions on what's to come. Doesn't inspire confidence really, but at the end of the day - we've all seen that even when the shit hits the fan, life goes on

A good source of foreign exchange news is on www.xe.com. I also check www.ozforex.com.au as they have handy info there too

Cheers

Aaron

mid last year i was looking at importing an Evo VIII for around $30k or a R34 GTR for around $50k.

2008

Average Rates January 95.1924 JPY (23 days average) February 97.7348 JPY (21 days average) March 92.9197 JPY (21 days average) April 95.5892 JPY (22 days average) May 99.0637 JPY (22 days average) June 101.684 JPY (21 days average) July 102.771 JPY (23 days average) August 96.4547 JPY (21 days average) September 87.3348 JPY (22 days average) October 68.7377 JPY (23 days average) November 63.942 JPY (20 days average) December 61.3314 JPY (23 days average)

but it seems since a year ago, these cars are worth about the same on the second hand market. Actually im not sure are they even more expensive to import now ??

2009

Average Rates January 61.0344 JPY (21 days average) February 59.9958 JPY (20 days average) March 65.1678 JPY (22 days average) April 70.5158 JPY (21 days average) May 73.8749 JPY (21 days average) June 77.5364 JPY (22 days average) July 76.0653 JPY (23 days average) August 80.3344 JPY (7 days average)

any economists here ? do you think it might be back up to around 100 by the end of the year ?

[260tech]

Long story short mate, no one really knows from one day to the next what the currency is going to do. In the space of a month it went down 40% last year and it has taken since October 08 to get back to around the 80 yen/aud that we see today. If it were to get to 100yen/aud again I believe it will take a combination of a recovering Japanese economy and confidence in the AUD which really means, confidence in resources.

Monday this week we saw 82yen per aud and today it was 78 - this is a 5% variance in a couple of days, influenced by a bit of pessimistic data about the Chinese economy recovering and Japanese economic data showing no signs of a recovery in their economy.

I read everything I can get my hands on to try and get a feel for what might be coming, but truth be told, I didn't expect the aud to recover to 80yen for a while longer. I think that for as long as this GEC is continuing, our currency is going to be volatile. If it holds around the 80 yen mark, I will be happy - when I started importing from Japan around 6-7 year ago we were getting 70yen to the dollar so 80 seems good to me, though I was certainly never complaining when I could buy cars and parts at 110yen to the dollar last year!

Exchange rates aren't the be all and end all of getting good buys. The prices of many used cars and also used car parts in Japan have dropped as demand has dropped domestically and from abroad due to the strengthening yen. At the moment, most cars can be imported for the same sort of dollars as they could be when the aud was 25% stronger against the yen.

I don't expect that will continue though, with Japanese new car sales down by almost half, the flow of used cars onto the market in Japan is slowing markedly, with the amount of available cars at around 60 of the levels we were seeing this time last year. This can only result in prices picking up again, especially as other currencies gain against the yen.

My personal advice?

If you're looking for an import - look locally first. If you don't find what you're looking for, importing is the way to go. You will generally save vs buying locally, particularly on more expensive cars (evo, gt-r and 34 or later skylines) and get a better choice of cars

This probably hasn't shed any light for you on what to expect with exchange rates - I don't think anyone can predict what will happen day to day - the so called experts have 20/20 hindsight vision but they all have different opinions on what's to come. Doesn't inspire confidence really, but at the end of the day - we've all seen that even when the shit hits the fan, life goes on

A good source of foreign exchange news is on www.xe.com. I also check www.ozforex.com.au as they have handy info there too

Cheers

Aaron

Aaron speaks the truth.