How long is a piece of string?
You take the gamble, it's illegal and it's your license.
Past history counts for nothing realistically. Behave, it's only a month. Better to do it right as if you lose 3 demerits, you are on eggshells for the next 12 months and any offence will see you losing license. (not sure if you do accrue points for it, ring VicRoads).
Yes its a new car etc, but the urge to drive it - just wait. You'll have 7 days and 24hrs to do so once you get your manual license.